Hospital strain and Covid-19 fatality: analysis of English nationwide surveillance data (preprint)

ObjectivesTo examine whether and to what extent hospital strain will increase the risk of death from Covid-19. DesignRetrospective cohort study. SettingEngland. ParticipantsData on all the 147,276 Covid-19 deaths and 601,084 hospitalized Covid-19 patients in England during the period between 9 April 2020 and 11 March 2022 were extracted on a daily basis from the UK Health Security Agency. Main outcome measuresThe number of Covid-19 patients currently in hospitals was used as the measure of hospital strain. Daily case fatality was estimated as the measure of risk of death from Covid-19. The study was divided into 4 periods, which represented largely the wild, Alpha, Delta and Omicron waves. Weighted linear regression models were used to assess the association between hospital strain and Covid-19 fatality with adjustment for potential confounders including vaccination score, hospital admission rate, percentage of deaths outside hospitals, study period and interaction between patients currently in hospitals and study period. ResultsThe daily case fatality from Covid-19 increased linearly as the number of patients currently in hospitals increased in the 4 study periods except the Omicron wave. After adjusting for potential confounders, an increase in 1000 patients currently in hospitals was associated with a relative increase of 6.3% (95% CI: 5.9%~6.8%), 1.4% (95% CI: 1.3% ~ 1.5%) and 12.7% (95% CI: 10.8%~14.7%) in daily case fatality during study periods 1, 2 and 3 respectively. Compared with the lowest number of patients currently in hospitals, the highest number was associated with a relative increase of 188.0% (95% CI: 165.9%~211.6%), 69.9% (95% CI: 59.0%~81.8%) and 58.2% (95% CI: 35.4%~89.0%) in daily case fatality in the first 3 study periods respectively. Sensitivity analyses using the number of patients in ventilation beds as the measure of hospital strain showed similar results. ConclusionsThe risk of death from Covid-19 was linearly associated with the number of patients currently in hospitals, suggesting any (additional) effort to ease hospital strain or maintain care quality be beneficial during large outbreaks of Covid-19 and likely of other similar infectious diseases. Summary boxO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABS- During the Covid-19 pandemic, tremendous efforts have been made in many countries to suppress epidemic peaks and strengthen hospital services so as to avoid hospital strain with an ultimate aim to reduce the risk of death from Covid-19. - These efforts were made according to the widely held belief that hospital strain would increase the risk of Covid-19 death but good empirical evidence was largely lacking to support the hypothesis. - A few small studies showed that shortage in intensive care was associated with an increased Covid-19 fatality but strains may occur in many areas in the healthcare system besides intensive care and they may all increase the risk of death from Covid-19. - The totality of hospital strain can be approximated by the number of patients currently in hospitals but its effects on the risk of Covid-19 death has not been demonstrated. What this study adds- We found the risk of death from Covid-19 was linearly associated with the number of patients currently in hospitals before the Omicron period. - Compared with the lowest number of patients currently in hospitals in an outbreak, the highest number could be associated with a relative increase in the risk of death between 58.2% and 188.0%. - The number of patients currently in hospitals during the Omicron period was not found associated with the risk of death but there remains uncertainty if the number of patients currently in hospitals reached a level much higher than that actually occurred in England or in places other than England. How this study might affect research, practice, or policy- Facing the on-going Covid-19 pandemic and future outbreaks alike, the linear relation between hospital strain and fatality suggests importantly any (additional) effort to reduce hospital strain would be beneficial during a large Covid-19 outbreak.

Author Correction: Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20254-5.

Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting human activities, and in turn energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Here we present daily estimates of country-level CO2 emissions for different sectors based on near-real-time activity data. The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions (-1551 Mt CO2) in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The magnitude of this decrease is larger than during previous economic downturns or World War II. The timing of emissions decreases corresponds to lockdown measures in each country. By July 1st, the pandemic's effects on global emissions diminished as lockdown restrictions relaxed and some economic activities restarted, especially in China and several European countries, but substantial differences persist between countries, with continuing emission declines in the U.S. where coronavirus cases are still increasing substantially.

Predicting the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic for the Low- and Middle-Income Countries (preprint)

This study predicts the maximum hospital demand and number of infections for the LMICs in the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The epidemic is estimated to impose health care burden excessively exceeding the current capacity of hospitals in many LMICs, especially in Honduras, Central African Republic and Colombia.